Weird, Wacky Weather
Whether the weather has been good or bad depends on your perspective. Most would agree that it’s been a tough first six weeks of the year. I was in Alabama and Georgia last week calling on customers and got out the day before the snow hit! Of course, I came home to colder temperatures and more snow than most can imagine as you can see in the picture.
Hawaii was the only one of the 50 states that didn’t have snow last week, yet Vancouver had to truck snow in before the Olympics and with temperatures in the 50s, they have blossoms blooming on the trees.
On the good side, I did read the other day that over 92% of the US is now drought-free. This is the best it’s been since the early 1990s. Here’s hoping that it’s a sign of good things to come in 2010. As the weather clears, more equipment will be running which will be good for employment and in turn the economy!
How much impact does the weather have on your customers and the markets you serve?
The Market…
What a year we have all gone through in 2009. Most of us follow the “market” or the “economy” and many of us read industry journals…more and more online. Where have we been, what happened and where are we going? We may not have all of these answers for years to come.
I think what’s important is that we get a more focused view of the markets we serve. I just read the other day where many technology and ecommerce stocks had a great 2009. Certainly, the performance of those blue chips affects the perception of what’s happening in the broader market, but is it really a good indicator for the markets we serve? Likely not.
Our view is that the Construction and Agricultural Equipment markets have bottomed with Construction being off nearly 50% since 2006 and some segments off 80 to 90%. The important variable for our business is equipment utilization rates. We estimate that telehandlers for instance peaked at 90% in 2006 and 2007 and fell to 10% in 2009. Optimistically, we are looking for telehandler utilization levels to double in 2010. We think that forestry fared far better in 2009, but only because that segment dropped in prior years before the overall market. Agriculture held up fairly well in North America…people have to eat!
We would like to hear from you…what are you seeing in your markets?

